Israel Responds… Yet Again
And the Beat Goes On
If you’re new to this series of posts or if you need to catch up on how we got to this point, don’t forget to check out the previous posts in this timeline: The Cruelest Day(s), Crueler Days Ahead, and The Death of Sinwar!
The long-awaited Israeli response to Iran’s last response to the previous Israeli response occurred on October 26. I’ve literally lost track… I think we’re up to the 8th Round of responses to responses at this point…
Whatever the number… THIS Israeli response was both less than the handwringers fretted about and more devastating in its real consequences than Iran wished. In what can fairly be called a proportional response, Israel targeted 20 military installations across the country, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian missile programs.
Commercially available satellite imagery confirmed that the IDF destroyed several buildings at the Parchin and Khojir complexes. These complexes are managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry. Iran began expanding the facilities at the latter site in August 2023 to increase their missile manufacturing capacity.
The imagery showed no signs of secondary explosions, consistent with targeting industrial sites rather than weapons storage facilities. Three unspecified Israeli sources told Axios that the IDF also targeted sophisticated mixing equipment used to make the solid fuel for advanced ballistic missiles.
Saudi media also reported Israel had destroyed solid fuel manufacturing plants.
Remember, Iran fired ~180 ballistic missiles at Israel in their October 1st attack. According to reports, it will take at least two years for Iran to be able to build ballistic missiles again. Axios’s Israeli sources also noted that Iran must buy new mixers from China, which could take a year or more to deliver. This would severely dampen Iran’s ability to replenish its missile stockpiles and export to its Axis of Resistance partners, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Russians.
The IDF struck several locations in Iraq and Syria immediately before launching strikes into Iran, undoubtedly targeting early warning radars and sensors that would have given Iran advance notice of the incoming Israeli attack. Iran had quietly built an early detection network across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to better defend against Israeli airstrikes.
Iranian officials and state media have downplayed the amount of damage that the IDF inflicted. The regime boasted that it prevented IDF aircraft from entering Iranian airspace (Really?) and that the strikes caused only limited damage. Once again, downplaying the Israeli strike.
Though initially reporting only four deaths, the Iranians have upped that number to 26. But even 26 deaths is still a remarkably low loss of human life given the extent of the raids. It almost makes one wonder if Iran has been purposely removing personnel from the bases at night to avoid a large number of casualties from the expected retaliatory strikes -which would put tremendous pressure on the Ayatollahs to respond robustly, thereby starting yet another round of attacks.
Curiously, in the aftermath of the attacks, the IRGC made a public announcement that anyone who took photos of the damaged sites by Israel's airstrikes would be punished with imprisonment for up to 10 years. If nothing much happened, as they claim, why aren’t they publishing photos to prove that statement? And again, if they stopped Israeli aircraft from entering Iranian airspace, how could there be any damage?
Ronan Bergman of the NYT Magazine noted that Israel tried to send a signal to Iran back in April when they responded to Iran’s first direct strike on Israel by destroying a single Russian S-300 defense system (the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates) with one of their new and heretofore “secret” missiles.
That was Israel’s way of announcing that it not only had the missiles but also the capability to send them a LONG way, in this case, ~1500 km.
Iran, however, missed that point and also failed to note the relative vulnerabilities of the S-300 against advanced platforms like the F-35 fighter jet, so this time, Israel took out all of the remaining S-300s, leaving Iran not only blind but wide open to future attacks.
Some reports indicate that some regions of southern Iran can’t even see what’s happening in the sky over their territory. It is important to remember that many of the S-300s protected nuclear and oil facilities. One, in fact, was the battery guarding the biggest energy industry “park” for gas and oil. The bombs didn’t touch the industrial complex itself, but the implication was clear: We will be back, and the next time will be far worse.
The US pressure to avoid escalation has clearly paid off (at least for now). Bibi avoided targeting the oil infrastructure, which would have had a catastrophic economic effect on the world economy. He also didn’t try to target Khamenei or any other prominent regime leaders, as so many have called for.
Hopefully, the Israelis will remember that engaging in regicide can result in a heck of a blowback!! No leader with 2 brain cells to rub together wants to demonstrate the ease with which another leader can be knocked off… It might give their own people “ideas!”
BTW, the other day, the NYT reported that Khamenei has been diagnosed with cancer…type unspecified. Please give me credit for resisting the urge to wonder if he actually has “Bibi-kemia” instead of a more common kind of cancer. Regardless, it’s possible to die from either!
Additionally, Israel has neither the long-range bombers nor the Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs that would be needed to destroy or significantly damage the hardened underground bunkers that house the Iranian nuclear development program. The WSJ reported that the White House used the THAAD anti-missile system as a bargaining tool to reign in Bib’s response.
After the Pentagon noted Israel’s interest in the system, Secretary of State Antony Blinken advised Biden to approve its delivery if Israel agreed to target only military sites. This apparently led to the key breakthrough during Biden’s call with Netanyahu on October 9th and the decision to sit tight until recently.
It remains to be seen what Iran will do. Although there were initial reports that Iran sent quiet signals that it would not respond, there are recent indicators that it might have had a change of heart. One obvious question is: What price will the Iranians pay for any response? Their country has no defenses against Israeli air power. But more importantly:
Will the strike happen on or before November 5th?
If Israel waits for the election's outcome, how much will that outcome affect their response?
It’s a tough situation. As the situation continues to change, the ground is shifting beneath their feet. Last April, Iran broke with their ~ 40 year policy of not striking Israel directly, preferring to engage in a shadow war via their well-armed and funded proxy forces. At the same time, Israel had always responded in kind, using clandestine assassinations of leading scientists and political leaders as well as cyberattacks against vital Iranian infrastructure. Indeed, Israel never officially acknowledged their response in April. This time, they were not shy. They openly announced both the strikes and the damage. It remains to be seen if further strikes will follow.
Late breaking news (Saturday, Nov.2nd): An Israeli Navy ship crossed the Suez Canal and entered the Red Sea. According to N12 News, the boat contains Israeli LORA ballistic missiles with a range of up to 500km. If the ship continues traveling eastward, Iran will be within the range of these missiles.
My sinking suspicion: we’ll awake on Tuesday to news that Israel has launched a major attack on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. This will significantly impact China, as they purchase ~90% of all Iranian oil produced these days. The rest is bought by various Asian countries, including Japan.
Latest breaking news (Sunday, Nov. 3rd): The WSJ is reporting that Iran has told various Arab diplomats that Iran is preparing plans for a powerful, multi-faceted strike against Israel, involving more advanced warheads and additional weaponry. That is par for the course; what’s different this time is that Iran’s conventional army is expected to participate in the attack. Reason given? The loss of four soldiers and a civilian in a recent Israeli strike. If so, it seems as if Iran has a suicide wish.