Crueler Days Ahead

Despite daily predictions and warnings that Israel is moments away from launching devastating attacks on Iran that will inevitably result in a wider Middle East war (if not World War III), Israel is -so far- sticking to what has proven to be very effective at decapitating its existential enemy —> radical jihadist terrorist groups.

For those who continue to insist that it was the Israeli occupation and conditions in Gaza that gave rise to Hamas, allow me to provide a survey of these groups and where they are located:

• The Houthis… they’re in Yemen

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — Iran

• The Taliban are in Afghanistan

• ISIS (for the most part) in Iraq/Syria

• Boko Haram is mostly in Nigeria

• Janjaweed is largely in Sudan and Chad

• Al Shabaab - Somalia

• Hezbollah- Lebanon, where it expanded its activities and control after Israel left that country.

Seems to me like Hamas is part of a larger problem of jihadism that exists all across the Middle East.

In our last post The Cruelest Day(s) we began a calendar of events focused on Israeli efforts to decapitate Hezbollah.

On October 4, the IDF killed Hashem Safieddine, the Deputy Secretary General and the apparent Nasrallah sucessor when they targeted Hezbollah’s Intelligence headquarters. —Some sources claim he survived that attempt only to be killed in the strike on October 7th— Note: many publications spell his name Hashem Safi Al-Din.

On October 7, Israel issued evacuation orders for residents of specific buildings located in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah has its headquarters.

Apparently Suhail Hussein Husseini, the group’s logistics chief ignored them and was killed in a targeted strike on October 8. —> The IDF said that Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s military council, was involved in the transfer of advanced weapons from Iran to various Hezbollah units, and was also responsible for the budgeting and logistics of Hezbollah’s “most sensitive projects,”- including planning attacks against Israel from Lebanon and Syria.

On October 9 Israel struck multiple targets in Syria, close to the Iranian border.

On October 10, Israel struck the heart of Beirut for the third time, targeting Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s head of Internal Security. His death was cause for celebration among Lebanon’s Christian community, because Safa was noted for killing any Lebanese citizen or politician who defied Hezbollah.

However on October 11 it was reported that he survived. (Stay tuned—at best he has about a week left). It was subsequently announced that most of Hezbollah’s cash and gold reserves,- an estimated $1.5 billion in cash and 2,000 pounds of gold were incinerated/melted during the attack.

Quite bizarrely, Hamas leader (and former Political Bureau head, - (1996-2017) Khaled Mashaal announced on Qataai TV (Al Arabi) that “Iran killed brother Abu el Abed Haniyeh…where? In Tehran.”  Reminder: This was the targeted assassination in the official guest house on the IRGC compound in downtown Tehran on July 31. Yes, you read that correctly— IRAN. And no, it’s not a typo.

The most surprising thing is that many in the Arab world (especially Palestinians) are not treating the statement as a slip of the tongue, but rather as an accurate statement. More than a few reliable commentators agreed with one source who believed that Meshaal’s statement “confirms the seriousness of what the axis of resistance is facing,” insinuating that Israel had turned the axis members (-Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas) -against each other. Meshaal is believed to be an opponent of the Iranian axis, as he has long advocated for an alliance with Sunni Arab countries willing to support Hamas. Although Meshaal “stepped down” from his leadership” of the Politburo in May 2017, it is widely believed it was due to pressure from the Iranian regime, who reportedly opposed Meshaal's reappointment. He was replaced, of course, by ——Ismail Haniyeh.

Meanwhile, IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani was being investigated following Nasrallah's assassination, according to a report in Middle East Eye, a Qatari-funded British newspaper. 

Iranian sources claimed the Quds Force commander was not injured in the Israeli strike that killed Hashem Safi al-Din – because he “missed” the meeting. Therefore he was the prime candidate for being a double agent and was being interrogated in Lebanon by the IRGC over suspicions that he, or someone close to him, informed Israel. He subsequently suffered a heart attack and was hospitalized. Suspicion has now shifted to the interrogator himself-and he has become the interrogated!

"The Iranians have a serious suspicion that the Israelis managed to infiltrate the Revolutionary Guards, especially those operating in the Lebanese sector, so everyone is now under investigation," said a commander of a force close to Iran. "Nothing is certain yet. The investigation is ongoing and all options are open," he added. 

On October 11, a massive cyberattack hit the Iranian government, stealing large swaths of classified information.

On October 12, we learned that Hezbollah launched 320 missiles, UAVs and other projectiles at Israel during their holiest day, Yom Kippur. It’s rather ironic as the UN Security Council passed a resolution on March 24, 2024 demanding that Israel honor a ceasefire during the Moslem holy month of Ramadan. In fairness, it’s important to note that the resolution also demanded return of the hostages, and the need to expand the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, though it did not condemn Hamas’ role in the October 7, 2023 attack. (The United States abstained, though it noted that it fully supported the critical objectives of the resolution.)

Today (October 13th) Hossein Muhammad Asili was eliminated. He was the commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force,and had just replaced the previous commander Jamal A-Tawil who was eliminated on October 20th.

This leaves me with two burning questions:

1. How many Scaramuccis is the life cycle of any newly appointed Hezbollah or Hamas commander?

2. Is the brilliant psychological warfare operation waged by Israel against the various nation states and terror groups-and groups within each of the groups-worthy of a John le Carre plot? — Because the Hezbollah/Hamas reactions seem to be similar to a Monty Python skit.