After the Party is Over

Dealing with the Hangover

Greetings from Washington, D.C.!!!

-I would say, "I wish you were here," but I don't wish that fate on anyone… :-)

Let me start by apologizing for "pausing" the publication of my commentary during the fevered dream that was our American Presidential Elections.

I've always been wary of getting involved in the emotional melee of campaign bluster… I'm just not a "[political] party guy" (unless there's wine and bourbon involved).

Instead of a political wonk, I’m an “idea guy.” In my view, if an idea is stupid… it’s just stupid. It’s not red-stupid or blue-stupid, it’s just stupid-stupid. AND… a good idea💡 is a good idea… even if it comes out of the mouth of someone that you don’t like.

Since neither party has cornered the market on ideas, I support or critique both sides depending on the concept proposed. I invariably step on someone’s toes with every essay and get blamed by both sides as they play politics :-)

But I’m okay with critiques. I read them more closely than compliments. Steel sharpens steel. ⚔️ Some recent ones:

• Some military members were a little incensed when I used grade-school-level math to show that with the money we have programmed to buy the next 50 warships for the US Navy, we could instead build 13,000 public schools (yep, thirteen thousand buildings). On Security: By a 6th Grade Teacher.

• Some folks on the right (to include a friend from my MBA program) were unhappy with my explanation of how US businesses use our social safety-net programs as subsidies that enable them to pay less than living wages and enrich themselves on the backs of taxpayers. Step One: Illegal Immigration

• A few progressives were dismissive of my explanation of basic economics. To wit, how the last administration’s “light touch(?)” on illegal immigration was their shortcut to step around living wage discussions and drive down inflation by ensuring low-cost illegal labor for businesses. This was especially important in “blue” cities where the income gap has grown so great that the teachers and policemen who serve the city can’t afford to live there. Step One: Illegal Immigration

• Even Erik Prince dropped me a DM (on the low-low) to tell me that he does not only do his own writing but his own research as well. He reached out in response to some of my questions in Prince's Diagnosis of Defense my commentary on his essay, “Too Big to Win.”

The criticism that I get is usually constructive. However, during the craziness of the Presidential Election, folks were more interested in rooting for their “team” than in honest discussions about solving challenging problems.

Everyone was talking… Lots were hearing…. but no one was LISTENING. So, for that time, I thought it best to stop firing off essays and keep my powder dry…

And true to form (like a bad penny or a Vin Diesel film), I have turned up again, rejuvenated by the idea that there are no shitty political television ads on tv for a year or so.

As I return to my keyboard, I find that half of my friends are dancing with glee, and the other half believe the world is about to end. AND (sadly) those two groups just emotionally flip-flopped in November :-)

Personally, I don’t subscribe to either of those points of view. I know that we have the most powerful armed forces in the world, so I don’t worry about our nation's physical security. But I do worry about our economic security and my children’s future.

I don’t believe for a minute that we are in the worst period of our country’s history… not even close. In my (short :-) lifetime, worse happened in the 1970s alone.

• In 1970, four students were killed and nine wounded by the Ohio National Guard at a war protest at Kent State University.

• “In a single eighteen-month period during 1971 and 1972 the FBI counted an amazing 2,500 bombings on American soil, almost five a day.” The Bombings of America that We Forgot

• In 1973, OPEC quadrupled oil prices, which led to a stock market crash and stagflation through 1974.

• In 1974, Gerald Ford was sworn in as the only President of the United States who no one voted for. This was after both the Vice President and the President resigned because of corruption charges.

• In 1976, Bryan Burroughs (Time) tells us that explosions (bombings) were so prevalent in San Francisco that an FBI spokesman termed the city "the Belfast of North America."

The world is not about to end… we've been in a much worse situation. BUT… we're certainly not doing anything to help ourselves…

There's certainly no reason to be dancing in glee.

• China has been preparing for a trade war with the United States for at least a decade. We have not been preparing (we love our stuff too much). We are not ready.

• We cannot grow, tax, or tariff ourselves out of debt. We will have to make tough and unpopular choices. None of our politicians have the courage to start us down the road of wiping the red ink off of our books. Firing the entire federal workforce will get us at reducing less than 1% of our budget expenditures… let's stop blowing smoke and positioning mirrors.

• We already produce more oil than we can use and more than we have ever produced. We also produce more Natural Gas than we can use. Yet businesses are clamoring to build infrastructure on the Gulf Coast to facilitate exportation of those products… Common sense tells us that the only way to decrease the price is to produce an abundance for domestic consumption, not for export. The next time anyone talks about exporting petroleum or natural gas, they are talking about profiting, not about bringing down prices for Americans.

• Our agriculture industry is built on the sandy soil of illegal immigration. As we begin deportations, expect that food prices will never be lower than they are now.

• llegal immigration is indeed a real and insidious problem because it eats away at the fundamentals of our economy. Onshoring illegal labor is tantamount to offshoring manufacturing. But, executing a solid effort to contain and turn the problem around will take two decades. Unless you are willing to work for $11 per hour in a meat packing plant or pay $11 a pound for hamburger, please don't talk to me about solving illegal immigration in the next four years. It's economically infeasible (as we will soon be witness to).

If you're watching the news, you're watching the end of a slow-motion train wreck we've been heading towards for decades. The legislative branch has abrogated its constitutional powers to the executive to avoid making the tough calls that might cause them to lose a reelection campaign.

That is a topic worthy of discussion, but it is not my area. My purpose is national strategy (or our lack of it). Our lack of strategic forethought poses an existential threat to our nation. THAT is my focus.

If you’re interested in efforts to ✊Fight the Power✊ (I joke), I recommend the essays and posts of my writing partner, Paula Philbin. I believe that Paula would also recommend the substacks of Andrew Weissman and Jeremi Suri.

To wrap up this “back to writing” piece, a couple of thoughts…

• I publish here because it allows for nuance. Strategy is nuanced. You can shout tactical directions or loudly lecture on operational efforts, but we are required to iterate (converse) to develop strategy.

• I’m open to discussion and criticism from all sides.

• If we take anything away from the change of administration, it should be that nothing done with the stroke of a pen holds permanence. Most of the efforts of President Trump (45), President Biden, and President Trump (47) will not survive their presidency. What a colossal waste of effort and resources.

• Changing course every election is not strategic; at best, it is a patchwork of tactical and transactional efforts focused on pet projects.

• Our recent presidents (both parties) have been served by some of the least strategic thinkers in our republic's history, and it shows.

• Anything that can be done (or undone) with the stroke of a pen is tactical, not strategic.

There is little doubt that we have lost sight of our purpose. Our domestic infighting leaves us vulnerable to competitor nations, who can at least muster a modicum of unity of effort.