Bill Gates Beyond Time
Chronicles of Bill’s Temporal Ventures
The last post, which focused on strategy, packed a lot of new ideas into a relatively small amount of text. I wanted to give practical examples of some of my proposals, so I took out a small loan, rented a time machine, and (channeling my inner Bill and Ted) grabbed Bill Gates to help me with some examples.
The last time we discussed strategy, we pointed out that the goal of a strategy is a desired steady state. I admitted in that post that the concept is hard to grasp. So, this post will deal with how the never-ending strategic time horizon affects our goals and resourcing.
Remember, this is not about government and war. It is about strategy and how a good strategy can put you, an organization, a business, or a nation in a position of leverage over your competitors for the long haul.
Business Competition at the Strategic Level
The chief executive officers (CEOs) of the world’s major corporations lead their organizations in competitions that are as intense (if not more so) than the competition between nations. A few even manage resources greater than the gross domestic product of most of the world’s countries.
An excellent example of that competition is the rivalry between Apple and Microsoft. The tug-of-war between the two companies has played out over the last four decades like a well-scripted television series (except maybe it would be streaming on Amazon Prime, as a neutral party). And like all strategic competition, there is no end in sight.
Once again, I have to give a hat tip to Simon Sinek here and recommend that you read his book, “The Endless Game.” It was Simon that focused us on Bill Gates for our Time Machine adventure!!
Both Microsoft and Apple were founded in 1975, and an intense competition to determine the future of personal computing was born. The two companies took fundamentally different strategic paths. The result was that Microsoft placed itself in a position of leverage over almost the entire PC marketplace by 1997.
And now, we board our time machine and travel back to 1997.
We set the controls to arrive in early August of 1997. After a surprisingly nauseating blur of light and color (damn those special effects guys!), we arrive in a Microsoft boardroom, unscathed and with lots of questions.
We arrive just in time to watch a business meeting chaired by Mr. Gates (let’s call this version “Bill Gates version 97.0”). As he interacts with his board, it seems like he’s a recently changed man. He’s talking about things “greater than himself.” He’s pontificating about affecting things beyond his lifetime (all the business folks around him look pretty nervous).
We’re interested in the change but also worried about getting into any deep discussions with Bill 97.0. What if we disrupt the time continuum and John Conner never meets Arnold Schwarzenegger? That could spell disaster for our world.
As we watch, Bill 97.0 is arguing with his business advisors (who appear to be in violent disagreement). Bill’s arguments make perfect sense to us. He is discussing the need for a forward-looking strategy. Maybe he learned something from his six-year friendship with Warren Buffet.
Gates is asking those around him to look beyond a fixed timeframe and beyond “winning.” Instead, he is looking to position his organizations (not just his company) in a position of leverage over time.
As we watch, Bill 97.0 picks up the phone and directs the investment of $150 million in Apple. One of the businessmen in the room calls for a psychiatrist; another calls his stockbroker.
Why would Bill do that? Microsoft has Apple on the ropes in 1997. Both of Apple’s founders are out of the company and Apple is weeks away from bankruptcy. The world of computing is unipolar in 1997. There is only one personal computing superpower, and that is Microsoft. Amidst all the wailing and gnashing of teeth by Bill 97.0’s advisors, we can see that he’s starting to waver.
Looking to stiffen his resolve to carry through with his course of action, we bundle Bill 97.0 into our time machine and move him forward in time to 2011. In the 14 years since his investment, Apple has surpassed Exxon as the world’s most valuable company. Then we bring Bill a full 26 years into his future. He arrives in 2023 and finds that he is horribly out of fashion AND that Apple’s valuation has reached $3 trillion (yes, with a “t”).
Did his investment in Apple destroy Microsoft? Was his strategy wrong? A short trip forward to March 2024 reassures him, as he sees that Microsoft has surpassed Apple, is once again the world’s most valuable company, and continues to compete with Apple for that spot on a daily basis.
We return Bill 97.0 to his place in the timeline, reassured that his initial inclination to be strategic rather than tactical was the right choice. He also returns reassured because his thoughts about strategy are not just guesses. His time traveling experience has made them “lessons learned.”
Victory today does not mean victory tomorrow.
Time does not end, so resources can be further developed.
No one can be number one forever. Shoot for number one every day, but stick to your strategy as long as you’re within a range of acceptable positions.
Strategy is not bound by time.
A strategy continuously looks to the future. There’s always tomorrow in the real world. The goal is not to win but to remain in a position of power, with leverage over your competitors. That takes continuous work… every day.
In 1997, Apple did not have iPods, iPhones, and iPads. Apple was at the point of bankruptcy, which forced the development of a new strategy. Since the world did not end in 1997, strategists could propose the hypothetical use of means they did not have at that moment in time to gain future leverage over their competitors. Apple could not compete in the space that Microsoft had defined, and it certainly could not destroy Microsoft. The company had to position itself (and dominate) where Microsoft was not. Doesn’t that sound like something Suz Tzu would say?
Bill Gates 97.0 did not invest in Apple to the detriment of his own company. True, over the years Microsoft waned a bit, and other revolutionary ideas overtook Microsoft’s efforts. However, access to the Apple ecosystem for Microsoft products (gained by that investment) paid for itself thousands of times over. Leaning on and learning from that investment helped Microsoft stay relevant and eventually revitalize itself.
More importantly, because it had invested strategically, Microsoft never had to take drastic measures to restructure itself and change its strategy. By 2023, Microsoft was not #1; it had fallen from its most desired steady state. However, it was still above its least acceptable steady state. Instead of drastic change, systemic change to refine and innovate brought it back to #1.
As we turn in our time machine at the rental counter, there are some points to remember. This is not about business… it’s about strategy, and it works the same way in the international arena.
What if we grabbed Ronald Reagan version 89.0 and brought him forward in time to today? No doubt he’d have a cow about a lot going on… but wouldn’t he be saddened about how we took our eye off the ball after we “won” against the Soviet Union?
Would he be surprised at how tactical our thinking had become regarding competition with the Russians? Would he admonish us for thinking that the game was over and not continuing the work to maintain a position of leverage over Russia?
Wouldn’t Ronnie be sad that we’re taxing our citizens billions (trillions?) to gain ground in a competition that he already had well in hand in 1989; a competition, now led on the Russian side by a failed Soviet KGB Agent?
What would Truman or Eisenhower say about the current state of our relations with North Korea? In 1953, North Korea had neither the ways nor the means to compete with or deter the United States. Today, they have nuclear weapons and remain one of the most painful thorns in our collective side. They didn’t fall into the ends = ways + means trap. They recognized that there is time to develop new means at the strategic level. Why did we fall into that trap? Did Iran? China?
In closing… an old friend, Dr. Tino Perez, complains often that many of us are “trapped in the tyranny of the now.” Let’s get our strategists to stop watching the clock and calendar.
The past is fascinating because it has relevant data points.
The present should be in the hands of operational and tactical planners.
Strategists should work on the problems of the future.
Strategists should focus on problems that the rest of us cannot see yet… and maybe help us avoid them altogether.
We did try to contact Bill Gates’s current version to ask for access to his previous versions. For some reason, he never answered our calls.
Yes, we realize that we saved your Apple products by convincing Bill Gates 97.0 to ignore his business advisors. You may leave a donation of appreciation on our substack as repayment if you wish.
When using a time machine, please remember the Spiderman Principle: With great power comes great responsibility.