A Middle Eastern Blend
Pungent, bitter, and brewing for a century and a half
During our last discussion, we talked about wicked problems. As we concluded, we laid out the next few posts focusing on national strategy development. And then, life happened… and the long-simmering, wicked problem in the Middle East took a new and ominous turn
On April 1, 2024, Israeli aircraft struck an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, killing 7 Iranian officers, 2 of whom were high-ranking generals. The senior Iranian general was a prominent leader in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Quds Force) who had spent years directing proxy strikes on Israel.
Iran responded to the strike by launching its first-ever direct attack on Israel proper, a mix of 300+ drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles. The action ratcheted up the already sky-high tensions, leading most observers to wonder if a wider regional war was indeed in the cards. Days later, Israel responded, striking an Iranian airbase near the Iranian city of Isfahan. Reaction in both countries has been remarkably muted since, suggesting that all parties are interested in lowering the temperature.
The backdrop of all this is the wicked problem of Palestine. We have received several DMs with questions about the background of the conflict. As we prepared to pontificate on that subject and searched for truth (at the bottom of several glasses of wine), we realized it would take a series of posts to address the topic. Therefore, we have decided to split our efforts. I will kick off our “Empires and Espresso” subcategory with a series of posts on the origins and history of the conflict. At the same time, my writing partner will focus on strategy and setting the stage for our combined effort on national security strategy.
As of now, my plan is to begin with a historical look at Judaism and Islam (explaining what prompted the split of Islam into Sunni and Shi’a factions.)
I’ll then jump to a discussion of Palestine under the Ottoman Empire in the 1880s, when Jews began to re-enter the areas in steady numbers, and the effects of the fall of that empire during World War I (which marked the arrival of the British and the French first as colonizers and later as League of Nations Mandate holders).
We’ll discuss the interwar years and the British struggle to balance the competing forces of Zionism and Arab nationalism, the rise of Nazism and the impact of World War II, and its aftermath (which included the Holocaust and Western support for the establishment of a Jewish state.)
We’ll look at the series of Arab-Israeli wars, the large-scale immigration from the Soviet Union to Israel in the early 70s and its affect on Israel’s politics and strategy, the fall of the Shah and the rise of the Ayatollahs in Iran, and the impact of terrorism on both the area and the world writ large.
Along the way, we’ll consider the tensions between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ayatollahs in Iran, the effects of the civil war in Yemen, and try to figure out what exactly is going on in Saudi Arabia…
So to kick it all off, I would like you to ponder how to define the wicked problem of Palestine. The Arab-Israeli conflict is possibly the most enduring of the last several centuries. Its roots can be traced back to the late nineteenth century when Jews started returning to Eretz Yisrael. Note that while the Jews were exiled by the Romans in 70 A.D., they were expelled from Jerusalem proper and not the entire area. Small groups of Jews continued to live in the Land of Israel between 70 C.E. and the 1880s.
How should the Arab-Israeli conflict be characterized?
- Is it, at heart, a family and religious war fed by the rival claims of feuding cousins, both believing they were the recipients of a divine promise for a home on the same land? The God of Abraham is God to Jews, Muslims, and Christians.
- Is it ethnic in nature, driven by traditionally rival groups? Both Arabs and Jews are Semites. In fact, the classic Arab rebuttal to charges of being anti-Semitic is, “How can I be? I am a Semite myself.”
- Is it the result of several centuries of European imperial rivalries that resulted in promises that guaranteed the same land to both the Arabs and the Jews? (Does this sound familiar?) Let’s not forget that Britain and France had a secret pact to divide the same land between themselves.
The British promised independence to the Arabs in the Hussein-McMahon Correspondence, and then
promised in the Balfour Declaration that they’d look favorably on the establishment of a Jewish “homeland” (to Baron Lionel Walter Rothschild, a leader of the Anglo-Jewish community), while knowing that
they’d already negotiated the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement to divide the area with the French.
- Is it an ongoing war of self-defense forced on a “spunky” young country with no choice but to fight for its survival in a tough neighborhood? A young country fighting for its existence against neighbors who do not believe that they have any right to live in the hood? Moments after Israel declared its independence in May 1948, they were invaded by the Armed Forces of 4 Arab countries.
**Remember that an independent Palestinian state was also authorized by the same UN declaration that authorized the creation of the state of Israel. It also designated Jerusalem an international city. The reason that an Arab Palestinian state did not come into existence is not that Israel conquered and occupied the entirety of the mandate area, althought they did increase the size of the territory they were alloted. Rather, at the signing of the armistice agreement in July 1949, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip and Transjordan occupied both East Jerusalem (with the exception of a small area on Mt. Scopus, the site of Hebrew University) and the West Bank of the Jordan River (much of which was part of the designated Palestinian state.) The West Bank was soon annexed by Transjordan, and renamed the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan**
- Or is it the classic example of a tragedy: two colliding “rights”?
The only proper way to confront wicked problems such as this is with facts, many of which are uncomfortable and some not commonly known. So, (for just a while) put your glass aside and brew a strong espresso!! We’re going to dive right in!
If you have any other questions, please post them in our comments section, and I’ll try to incorporate them as we proceed!
Ok You realize that you are overturnning Henry Fords commandment...History is Bunk, But then his portrait hung over Adolph Hitlers desk in the Reichskanzlerei. When you are done this whole thing needs to get to the NSC.
I look forward to reading this history. My own experience centers around the Shah’s fall in 1979. Our family was living in Panama at the time which became his refuge before he moved to Walter Reed. This experience sparked a quest for knowledge to learn about him, Iran, US engagement, etc. However, my understandings only cover the 1950s through to the present and focus on Iran. Keep up the fire.